First-order global stress patterns inferred from upper mantle flow models

Knowledge of the lithosphere stress field is critical to the evaluation of reservoir response related to energy resources and waste storage, as well as for hazard and risk assessment. We show with statistical comparisons of modelled and observed stress fields that a simple analytic flow model, where asthenosphere flux is driven by lateral pressure gradients and motion of overlying tectonic plates, explains the first-order global stress patterns from the World Stress Map (WSM). The model separates the flow into components related to plumes, slabs and plate motion, and suggests the potential to identify geodynamically plausible stress provinces, i.e. regions affected predominantly by specific flow components. It also reveals three distinct basal shear traction regimes, depending on whether asthenosphere locally moves faster, slower or at the same speed as the plate above, so that some regions are subject to driving or resisting tractions while others are nearly traction-free. Predicted deviatoric stresses within the asthenosphere are less than a few MPa. The model compares favourably to results from mantle circulation models (MCMs) and implies that realistic upper mantle flow geometries, i.e. the specific spatial distribution of plumes, slabs, plate-induced flow and their superposition, are essential for interpreting stress field patterns at global and regional scales.

@article{id3084,
  author = {Hayek, Jorge N. and Stotz, Ingo L. and Bunge, Hans-Peter and Carena, Sara},
  doi = {10.1098/rspa.2024.0969},
  journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A},
  language = {en},
  number = {2315},
  title = {First-order global stress patterns inferred from upper mantle flow models},
  volume = {481},
  year = {2025},
}

%O Journal Article
%A Hayek, Jorge N.
%A Stotz, Ingo L.
%A Bunge, Hans-Peter
%A Carena, Sara
%R 10.1098/rspa.2024.0969
%J Proceedings of the Royal Society A
%G en
%N 2315
%T First-order global stress patterns inferred from upper mantle flow models
%V 481
%D 2025