Needs and Developments in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment for Global Resinsurance

In the insurance industry seismic risk is typically defined as loss-frequency curve, the relation between insured monetary losses and their recurrence period due to damaging earthquake ground motion. Each of the seismic risk assessment modules, i.e. (i) seismic hazard analysis, (ii) vulnerability assessment, (iii) exposure distribution, and (iv) financial insurance conditions, inherently contain epistemic and aleatory uncertainties that have to be considered carefully. Most modeling algorithms utilize logic-tree based approaches and different types of uncertainty sampling methods to cover this uncertainty space reasonably well. In order to incorporate increasing input data quantities and account for new types of data or improved data quality, risk modeling codes have to be modified and adjusted constantly. Furthermore, such modeling codes have to be continuously adapted to evolving parallel computational environments (i.e. servers, clusters, clouds) and new business requirements. In this contribution, we are summarizing the current state-of-the-art in seismic risk modeling of one of the leading global reinsurance companies and point out where we foresee the major challenges in the future. To this end, we are briefly discussing the methods used in each of the abovementioned modules and clarify what issues still need to be addressed in further research in order to improve the reliability of risk modeling results. As vulnerability assessment often is the crucial issue, intensive exchange with earthquake and civil engineering will play an increasingly important role to tackle these problems.

@inproceedings{id2462,
  author = {K\"aser, Martin and Morales Aviles, Wilhelm and Bach, Christoph and Stupazzini, Marco},
  booktitle = {submitted to SECED 2019},
  language = {en},
  title = {Needs and Developments in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment for Global Resinsurance},
  year = {2019},
}

%O Conference Proceedings
%A Käser, Martin
%A Morales Aviles, Wilhelm
%A Bach, Christoph
%A Stupazzini, Marco
%B submitted to SECED 2019
%G en
%T Needs and Developments in Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment for Global Resinsurance
%D 2019