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The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Scheingraber, Christoph, and Martin Käser (2019), The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis, 39(3), 695-712, doi:10.1111/risa.13176.

Abstract
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) is a well-established method in the insurance industry for modeling portfolio losses from earthquake events. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown. However, so far, location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for treatment of location uncertainty. As a case study, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling typical real-world cases were created. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on loss variability. The results indicate that due to loss aggregation effects and spatial hazard variability, location uncertainty in isolation and in conjunction with ground motion uncertainty can induce significant variability to probabilistic loss results for portfolios with a small number of risks. For large portfolios with a relatively at value distribution, location uncertainty was found to have a less important effect. We conclude that while the extent depends on the context, in general portfolio location uncertainty should not be neglected or treated approximately when assessing probabilistic seismic risk to a spatially distributed portfolio.
Further information
BibTeX
@article{id2348,
  author = {Christoph Scheingraber and Martin K{\"a}ser},
  journal = {Risk Analysis},
  month = {mar},
  number = {3},
  pages = {695-712},
  title = {{The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis}},
  volume = {39},
  year = {2019},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13176},
  doi = {10.1111/risa.13176},
}
EndNote
%0 Journal Article
%A Scheingraber, Christoph
%A Käser, Martin
%D 2019
%N 3
%V 39
%J Risk Analysis
%P 695-712
%T The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis
%U https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13176
%8 mar
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Printed 21. Aug 2019 02:26